Understanding the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle and How Jet Lending, LLC Can Help

Written By: Alex Buriak | January 23, 2025

Time to Read 4 Minutes





Understanding the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle and How Jet Lending, LLC Can Help

The real estate market follows a predictable pattern known as the 18.6-year real estate cycle, a framework used by savvy investors to navigate market shifts effectively. This cycle, divided into recovery, expansion, peak, and correction phases, provides a roadmap for understanding the ups and downs of real estate investing. At Jet Lending, LLC, we’re committed to helping investors succeed, no matter the market phase.

The Four Phases of the Real Estate Cycle

1. Recovery Phase (Years 1-7)

  • Characteristics:

    • Follows a downturn or crash.

    • Low property prices and reduced competition.

    • Ideal for acquiring undervalued properties.

  • Red Flags:

    • Uncertain market conditions can make it difficult to predict property values.

    • Limited financing options due to tightened credit standards.

  • Solutions:

    • Work with experienced lenders like Jet Lending to secure creative financing solutions.

    • Use data-driven analysis to identify high-potential properties and reduce risk.

  • How Jet Lending Can Help:

    • We offer financing solutions to help investors acquire and rehab properties with minimal out-of-pocket expenses.

    • Access our expertise in analyzing deals to identify high-potential opportunities.

2. Expansion Phase (Years 8-14)

  • Characteristics:

    • Rising property values and increased construction activity.

    • Optimism drives demand for real estate investments.

    • Growing rental markets and appreciation trends.

  • Red Flags:

    • Overconfidence can lead to over-leveraging and risky investments.

    • Rising construction costs may squeeze profit margins.

  • Solutions:

    • Maintain a disciplined investment approach and avoid over-leveraging.

    • Partner with experts at Jet Lending to analyze market trends and assess project viability.

  • How Jet Lending Can Help:

    • Capitalize on growth with our flexible short-term and long-term loan products tailored for fix-and-flip or rental property strategies.

    • Leverage our market insights to stay ahead of trends.

3. Peak/Bubble Phase (Years 15-16)

  • Characteristics:

    • Rapidly rising property prices and speculative buying.

    • Market overheats, with prices exceeding intrinsic values.

  • Red Flags:

    • Overvaluation of properties can lead to investment losses.

    • Increased competition and bidding wars drive prices even higher.

  • Solutions:

    • Conduct thorough due diligence and rely on accurate ARV appraisals from Jet Lending.

    • Avoid emotional or speculative buying and focus on properties with solid fundamentals.

  • How Jet Lending Can Help:

    • Avoid over-leveraging by consulting with our experienced team to make data-driven decisions.

    • Use our ARV appraisal services to ensure properties are valued accurately before purchase.

4. Correction Phase (Years 17-18)

  • Characteristics:

    • Property values decline as the market adjusts.

    • Increased foreclosures and reduced liquidity.

  • Red Flags:

    • Falling prices may lead to negative equity in investments.

    • Difficulty in securing financing as lenders tighten standards.

  • Solutions:

    • Focus on acquiring distressed properties with strong long-term potential.

    • Utilize Jet Lending’s expertise in structuring deals to minimize risk and maximize returns.

  • How Jet Lending Can Help:

    • Take advantage of market corrections by securing funding for distressed properties at attractive prices.

    • Rely on our guidance for identifying opportunities in a down market and managing risks.

Where Are We in the Cycle Today?

As of 2025, the real estate market is likely in the late expansion phase, with signs of speculative behavior and robust property value growth. This phase often precedes the peak, requiring investors to be cautious and strategic.

Key indicators include:

  • Increased property listings, offering more choices for buyers.

  • Investor interest in real estate trusts due to anticipated interest rate cuts.

  • Speculative behavior in certain markets.

How Jet Lending Empowers Investors Through Every Phase

  • Custom Financing Solutions: Whether you’re acquiring undervalued properties in recovery or maximizing profits during expansion, our loan products adapt to your needs.

  • Expert Guidance: With over 20 years of experience, we’ve seen multiple cycles and know how to navigate market shifts.

  • Comprehensive Services: From ARV appraisals to rental market analysis, we provide tools and insights to enhance your investments.

Plan for Success with Jet Lending

The 18.6-year real estate cycle isn’t just a theory—it’s a practical guide for timing investments and mitigating risks. By understanding the cycle and partnering with Jet Lending, you can seize opportunities and safeguard your portfolio in any market condition.

Ready to take the next step? Contact Jet Lending today to discuss your investment goals and explore financing options tailored to your strategy. Together, we’ll build your real estate success story.

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